US House candidate Kevin Cramer’s campaign shared some polling numbers with me this evening which show the race breaking in the incumbent’s direction.
The polling was done by Odney on behalf of the campaign, so take it with a grain of salt. Voters were surveyed between October 20 and October 24, with a demographic breakdown of 33 percent Republicans, 20 percent Democrats, and 41 percent independents.
The results showed Cramer at 50 percent for the first time in publicly-released polling. Meanwhile, Democrat challenger George Sinner is at 35 percent and Libertarian Party candidate Jack Seaman comes in at 5 percent. Ten percent of respondents were undecided.
This is the seventh poll conducted in this race since the middle of September. Averaging the results of those polling together, Cramer has an average 9.33 percent lead over Sinner.
That’s including the Mellman Group polling done on behalf of Democrats back between September 20-22. I’ve been including it for the sake of fairness despite the fact that it claimed to use a “registration based” sample in a state with no voter registration, and the fact that the Sinner campaign has never officially released it.
If we toss that one out we come up with an average 11.6 point lead for Cramer.
Of course, most of this polling was done for the campaigns and/or the political parties. The only independent polling was the SAB/Valley News Live poll and the UND/Forum Communications poll.
Here are the trends for the candidates: