Another day, another polling release from Forum Communications and the University of North Dakota. This one is the Ag Commission race and, much like the U.S. House race yesterday, The Forum and UND are showing the Republican with a commanding lead.
According to the Forum, Goehring leads Taylor 45 to 27. There are still a lot of undecideds – 28 percent – but that’s a commanding lead.
It seems Taylor’s biggest problem – which is remarkable given that he was the Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate last cycle – is that people don’t really seem to know him:
The poll breakdown showed Goehring with “very favorable” or “favorable” impressions among 36 percent of likely voters, with 45 percent answering “don’t know” or “not sure.”
Taylor had “very favorable” or “favorable” impressions from 28 percent of likely voters, while 47 percent answered “don’t know” or “not sure.”
Being on the statewide ballot can help you with name recognition. But then again, when you lose on the statewide ballot, it kind of leaves you with the stink of being a loser.
To be honest with you, I think this polling is weighted a little too heavily to Republicans. I have no problem believing that Cramer and Goehring are leading in the polls, but even the polling internal polling information the campaigns have told me about doesn’t show this level of an advantage.
The first thing the Cramer told me about the polling yesterday is that they don’t believe they have a 19 point lead over Sinner. I doubt very much that Goehring thinks he’s got an 18 point lead over Taylor.