MINOT, N.D.—According to polling commissioned by North Dakota NBC news affiliates and released this week, Congressman Kevin Cramer is leading incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp by 10 points, 51 to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided.
I’ve long felt Cramer is winning. The last publicly released poll showing Heitkamp with a lead happened in late February. Since then a half dozen public opinion polls have shown Cramer with a small but consistent lead.
Polling showing Cramer up 10 points surprised me. When I asked the Cramer campaign how they felt about that number, they told me their internal polling has “been there for a while,” but then they would say that wouldn’t they?
Stipulating for a moment this polling, commissioned independently by the news media, is an accurate representation of where the Senate race is at right now, what could explain this sudden shift from a small lead for Cramer in multiple polls conducted previously to a very large lead for Cramer just weeks before the election?
In a word, Kavanaugh.