Last night Valley News Live aired the results of our polling into the U.S. House race, and asked the candidates about their reactions.
The results I released yesterday showed Cramer at 46 percent, Sinner at 39 percent and Libertarian candidate Jack Seaman at 3 percent.
Sinner says the polling makes Cramer look weak.
“I think the big number in the poll is that the incumbent is still below 50 percent,” Sinner said. “Anytime someone is below 50 percent it shows that he hasn’t resonated with the voters.”
The reaction I got from Republicans on this polling was surprise. They didn’t expect the race to be this close, though I’m not sure there’s any particular concern about Cramer being under 50 percent. And, of course, Sinner himself is below 40 percent in the polling and about 7 points behind the incumbent.
But Cramer isn’t taking anything for granted.
“I feel positioned well at a nice lead,” Cramer said. “That said, it’s a non-presidential election year. Anything can happen and it’s much harder to predict these midterm elections. Especially with an at-large district at the top of the ticket.”
It’s worth noting that this polling was conducted in the wake of controversy over an ad Cramer filmed in a veterans cemetery. Sinner and Democrats have been slamming Cramer for the ad, and I think it’s done some damage which is why this poll was closer than some expected. But it seems unlikely that issue is going to put Sinner on top. Indeed, I would expect Cramer to regain some points with voters as the issue fades.
But the only poll that matters is on election day.
Coming Up: I’ll be posting polling in the Ag Commission race later today. On Wednesday I’ll post the Secretary of State, Tax Commissioner and Attorney General results. On Thursday we’ll have polling for Measures 1 and 5 and on Friday we’ll release polling in the two PSC races.