On the radio show today I discussed with callers the Supreme Court’s narrow ruling in the case of a Colorado baker who was fined by a civil rights commission for refusing to bake a cake for a homosexual wedding. Also University of North Dakota economist David Flynn joined me to help cut through some of…
UND Economist on North Dakota Economy: “If We’re Not at Rock Bottom We’re Close”
Economic activity in North Dakota has been in decline for a couple of years now, dragging tax revenues for state and local governments down with it. As a result lawmakers had to shrink state budgets during a bruising session earlier this year (let’s hope local governments do the same instead of hiking property taxes). Populations…
UND Economics Professor Says He’d Flunk North Dakota’s Revenue Forecasters
Revenue forecasts in North Dakota are extremely important. That’s because our Legislature doesn’t meet very often (nor do most citizens want it to meet often, I think). So every odd-numbered year our lawmakers are tasked with making at two-year budget based on what professional forecasters think the state will collect in tax revenues based on…
David Flynn: Expect North Dakota’s Revenue Forecasts to Continue Falling
We are getting a new forecast this week for tax revenues in North Dakota. Or so we are told. I’ve written about the problems with these forecasts in the past, but there is a further issue here needing discussion. The simple fact of the matter is a lack of good practice in the overall approach, particularly with…
David Flynn: #Brexit Impact on North Dakota Economy Should Be Minimal
I resisted writing anything specific about Brexit and North Dakota for a time now. Part of the issue was it was all too soon; natural experiments of this scale are not something economists expect to just fall in their lap. There were many questions about the implications of the event for North Dakota, which as…
David Flynn: Rumors Of North Dakota's Recession Are Exaggerated
What better way to start a discussion about a mistaken declaration of recession in North Dakota than with a misquote of Twain. For those interested the actual quote from Twain was “The report of my death was an exaggeration.” We have to be very careful here and define terms well to have a meaningful discussion…
David Flynn: Oil Is Still A Big Part Of North Dakota's Economy
I am often asked about the relative position of oil and other industries in the ND economy. Usually this is me being asked to settle a dispute between industries as to who is more important or some such nonsense. However, the issue of oil in the North Dakota economy is worth revisiting right now given…
David Flynn: Would You Give Up North Dakota's Economic Highs To Avoid The Lows?
A caller to the radio show last week questioned why the North Dakota economic experience seemed is such stark contrast to the Minnesota situation. (She asked this while almost getting hit by a school bus breaking traffic laws.) There are a couple of reasons for this, one pretty easy to explain on the radio, and the…
David Flynn: Oil Slow Down May Not Be Hurting North Dakota Employment As Much As You Think
The future is always uncertain, but it seems that labor markets in the core Bakken counties could be having their Mark Twain moment: “The report of my death was an exaggeration.” My central argument here is not that the markets are not correcting, and I am not suggesting declines in employment will not happen, though the…
David Flynn: North Dakota's Oil Boom Has Slowed Not Busted
I am making a presentation to a group of retired UND faculty this morning on the topic of oil and the North Dakota economy. It is more of a free-flowing discussion than a chalk-and-talk format so I will add interesting comments later after I hear them. Oil is clearly a transformative event in the North…