Robert Marquette: The Economy Could Seal The Deal For Libertarians In 2016


A drilling rig operates near Keene, N.D., on Monday, March 14, 2016. North Dakota's drilling rig count is down to about 29, the lowest since October 2005. Amy Dalrymple/Forum News Service

Someone once said politics is the art of deception. And, what we have been told about the economy over the past 8 years is proof of this truism. At a press conference on April 5th, President Obama continued the deceptions as he spoke about the economy. And, as I listened to him, I could only think he must be living in a parallel universe. All I heard was one glowing statement after another about how fabulous our economy is performing. But, one needs only look at the facts reported at the end of the first-quarter to see the truth is the US Economy is contracting at an accelerated rate

Total business sales have been contracting for 2 years down 15% from 2014. Corporate earnings have declined 4 consecutive quarters. In April, commercial bankruptcies are up 32% and Chapter 11’s are up 67% from the same time last year. Self employment is near all time lows and declining.

Caterpillar (CAT) is considered a significant economic indicator, and CAT’s first-quarter 2016 adjusted earnings plunged 68% to 67 cents per share. After factoring in restructuring costs, Caterpillar’s 46 cents per share earnings is a 77.4% crash from its 2015 first-quarter earnings of $2.03 per share.

[mks_pullquote align=”right” width=”300″ size=”24″ bg_color=”#ffffff” txt_color=”#000000″]What is now glaringly obvious is that we can’t print our way to prosperity. We can’t afford to send establishment politicians to Washington any more.[/mks_pullquote]

Domestic rail traffic is down 11% over the same time period last year. Union Pacific has 292 engines sitting idle in Arizona because there are no goods for them to take to market.

Dozens of fracking companies are going bankrupt and we have lost more than 100,000 energy jobs since the beginning of 2014. These were good paying middle-class jobs. 191,000 mining jobs have been lost since 2014.

Retail is suffering. The inventory to sales ratio is back to the lowest levels since 2008. There were disappointing earning across the board in the Retail Sector. A couple notable examples are: first-quarter earnings for Macy’s down 7.4% from the same time last year, and earnings for Fossil are down down 9%, with their earnings per share down 84% from their first-quarter earnings a year ago.

The first-quarter blended earnings for the S&P 500 is down -8.8%, and the first-quarter of 2016 is the first time the S&P 500 has recorded four consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since the beginning of the financial crisis– fourth-quarter 2008 through third-quarter 2009. To date, at least 73 companies on the S&P 500 have issued negative earnings per share guidance for the second quarter 2016. And on friday, the S&P 500 showed the “death cross.” The death cross is when the 50 day moving average crosses below the 100 day moving average. The last time this happened was in November 2008 at the beginning of the “Great Recession,” and the time before that was in 2001 after the Dot Com crash.

An 11% drop in rail traffic and a decline in corporate earnings for four consecutive quarters never happens outside a recession. The US GDP has seen 3 consecutive quarters of decline. This year’s first-quarter GDP was a pathetic 0.5%. And, Barack Obama is on track to be the first president not to reach 3% growth during his term in office and the 4thworst average growth in history.

It took us 230 years to aquire $10 trillion in debt and just 8 more years to double that to $20 trillion. What is now glaringly obvious is that we can’t print our way to prosperity. We can’t afford to send establishment politicians to Washington any more. It is time to put the people back in control. It is time to say no to corruption, no to corporate welfare, no to endless deficits and no to imoral and illegal wars that are destroying our economy and enslaving our children to central banks with an unpayable debt. It is time to vote yes for free markets, vote yes for smaller government, vote yes for personal liberty, and it is time to vote yes for Libertarians.