Poll: Cramer Leads Heitkamp by 16 Points


Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who is opposing incumbent U.S. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, poses with Jocelyn Birklid, Miss Junior Teen North Dakota International, at the Uffda Day celebration in Rutland, N.D., Oct. 7, 2018. In North Dakota and other farm states, the partisan divide over the Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh has nationalized the fight for the Senate, elating Republicans and worrying Democrats. (Annie Flanagan/The New York Times)

A few weeks ago two independent polls commissioned by media outlets showed Congressman Kevin Cramer with double-digit leads over Democratic Senate incumbent Heidi Heitkamp.

One poll from Gray Television showed Cramer with a 10 point lead. A Fox News poll showed Cramer with a 12 point lead.

Since then Heitkamp cast a controversial vote against the appointment of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and saw her campaign embroiled in scandal over the outing of sexual assault survivors. Now a new poll from Gray Television shows Cramer with 16 point lead over Heitkamp.

WASHINGTON (Gray DC) — The man looking to unseat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) is increasing his lead. That’s according to a new Gray Television poll released Monday, which shows that 56 percent of likely North Dakota voters support Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), while 40 percent support Heitkamp. In our last Gray TV poll in September, Cramer led Heitkamp 51 to 41 percent.

Any given poll can be wrong, of course, but there are a lot of circumstantial evidence to indicate that this is probably accurate.

For one, this race has been trending Cramer’s way for months now. For another, it’s not surprising that Cramer has increased his lead over the last few weeks given the rough news cycles Heitkamp has been through.

UPDATE: It would seem this polling outcome is very specific to Heitkamp:

Here’s the specifics on the methodology:

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, based in Austin, Texas. A total of 650 likely voters were surveyed between October 12-19, 2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. The final results are weighted based on analysis of available electoral and commercial data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/- 3.84 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.