The latest revenue report from the Office of Management and Budget is out for December, and it shows continued strong growth for General Fund revenues in the state.
There is much concern about falling oil prices impacting state revenues, but in December at least there was no impact. Biennium to date the state’s revenues are up more than 13 percent in the 2013-2015 biennium over the 2011-2013 biennium.
As you can see from this chart, biennium to date the state continues to see revenue growth over and above the monster revenue boom last biennium:
The question is, how much longer will this be true? The current biennium ends in June, and the new biennium picks up in July. As you can see, the state has seen a veritable explosion in revenues over the last two bienniums. Can the 2015-2017 biennium continue that trend amid an oil price rout?
That seems unlike. And not just because of oil taxes.
Here’s the oil boom’s impact on income, corporate, and sales tax revenues.
The growth in income taxes is flatter as lawmakers have been cutting income tax rates, but as you can see there’s been strong growth in income taxes and downright explosive growth in sales taxes.
But how much of that revenue growth disappears as economic activity in western North Dakota slows? How much of an income tax hit do we take if people start losing their jobs?
I don’t think we’re in danger of falling back to pre-oil boom revenue levels, but as I said with the jobs report yesterday there’s a very real possibility that this is the last strong revenue report we’re going to see in a while.