New Poll: Cramer Leads Heitkamp by 9 Points, Armstrong Leads Schneider 55 – 33


Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who is opposing incumbent U.S. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, poses with Jocelyn Birklid, Miss Junior Teen North Dakota International, at the Uffda Day celebration in Rutland, N.D., Oct. 7, 2018. In North Dakota and other farm states, the partisan divide over the Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh has nationalized the fight for the Senate, elating Republicans and worrying Democrats. (Annie Flanagan/The New York Times)

Another day, another poll showing Congressman Kevin Cramer leading incumbent Senator Heidi Heitkamp by 9 points.

Yesterday the Trafalgar Group dropped polling showing Cramer with a 9 point lead. Today polling commissioned by Fox News shows a similar result:


Here’s a table showing all of the publicly available polling in this race going back to February:

An average of the three polls conducted in October show Cramer at 53.83, more than 11 points up on Heitkamp at 42.5.

I do think the race is closer than that – the average includes a poll from earlier this month showing Cramer with a 16 point lead, but that survey was conduct in the middle of a brutal news cycle for Heitkamp – but I think its safe to say that Cramer has a comfortable lead at this point. A tightening lead, given that Fox showed Cramer with a 12 point lead just last month, but that’s to be expected toward the end of any race. Especially given how much money Heitkmap is pouring into her messaging at this point.

Things can change very quickly, and certainly Heitkamp supporters are going to do all they can to throw dirt on these polling numbers, but the more data points we get the better it looks for Cramer.

Here’s a trend line for the polls:

The poll also covered the U.S. House race between Republican Kelly Armstrong and Democrat Mac Schenider. It showed Armstrong with a commanding 55-33 point lead, similar to what pretty much every other poll in that race has shown.

Trump’s approval in the poll was 61 percent.

Here is the full pulling memo:

Fox North Dakota Late Octob… by on Scribd