Armstrong Campaign Releases Polling Showing Their Candidate Leading Schneider 48 Percent to 26 Percent


U.S. House candidates Democrat Mac Schneider, left, and Republican Kelly Armstrong debate on Saturday, May 5, 2018, during the North Dakota Newspaper Association's annual convention at the Radisson Hotel in Bismarck. David Samson / The Forum

Earlier this morning I wrote about some strong fundraising numbers for the Kelly Armstrong campaign. According to the pre-primary filings with the FEC the Republican has nearly tripled what his Democratic opponent Mac Schneider has raised.

As I happened to be writing that post the Armstrong campaign shared with me some polling data showing their candidate with a very strong lead among likely voters.

The polling was commissioned by the campaign through Axis Research who”conducted a survey of 509 general election voters in North Dakota from May 13-14, 2018″ with a margin of error of +/- 4.47 percent.

You can read the full memo which was shared with me below, but this is the top-line result showing Armstrong leading Schneider 48 to 26 percent with 26 percent of respondents undecided:

The polling also shows about a 60 percent favorable rating for President Donald Trump, with 59 percent of people who say they’re definitely voting in November saying they’re more likely to vote for a candidate who supports Trump’s agenda.

Those numbers ring true to me. You know why? Because our Democratic friends clearly believe them.

Look at all the work North Dakota Democrats have put into aligning their top-of-the-ticket candidate, Senator Heidi Heitkamp, with President Trump. Even going so far as to mock her opponent, Republican Kevin Cramer, for not getting to stand as close to Trump as Heitkamp did during a recent bill signing.

Look at Schneider himself tip-toeing around Trump. “I’m not running against President Trump. I’m running for North Dakota,” he told reporter April Baumgarten in a story published yesterday.

I have a feeling the Democrats are seeing the same sort of polling numbers about Trump in North Dakota.

Still, these numbers released from the Armstrong campaign were paid for by the campaign. So all the usual caveats about that sort of thing apply. Plus, it’s early, and there are still a lot of undecideds.

Here’s the full memo:

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