The current polling has former Vice President Joe Biden leading a crowded field of Democratic candidates in the 2020 White House race on the national level, but here in North Dakota the front runner is a country mile behind incumbent President Donald Trump.
That’s according to a May poll from DFM Research (which was also the source for the numbers I wrote about yesterday pertaining to the Theodore Roosevelt Library project). The polling sample was made up of 400 North Dakotans (not likely voters), and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.
The survey showed 54 percent of voters saying they’d vote for President Trump, and just 39 percent saying they’d support Biden:
As a point of reference, Trump got nearly 63 percent of the statewide vote in 2016:
I’d say, based on this polling, that Trump is probably well-situated to repeat that vote total again in 2020, or get pretty close to it. He may be polling under his 2016 vote total, but remember when you go to the ballot box there is no “undecided” option. And in a Republican state like North Dakota, Trump probably gets most of the undecideds.
Also, voters behave differently in the heat of campaign season.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Trump come in somewhat under his 2016 total, if only because Joe Biden almost has to out-perform Hillary Clinton among North Dakota voters.
It would be very difficult to do worse.
Meanwhile, Trump has a 56 percent favorable rating among North Dakotans, with 34 percent saying they view him unfavorably.
The ideological breakdown of that number is about what you’d expect. Republicans in North Dakota love Trump (93 percent very/somewhat favorable), independents are split (47 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable), and Democrats hate the man (9 percent favorable, 86 percent unfavorable).
Again, North Dakota is a deeply Republican state. As long as Trump keeps Republicans happy, and breaks even with independents, he’ll win the state easily.