A survey conducted by North Star Opinion Research (an organization with a B rating from FiveThirtyEight.com), and commissioned by the Judicial Crisis Network, finds that a majority of North Dakota voters, including a plurality of female voters, supports the confirmation of Judge Kavanaugh.
The polling memo is below. “North Dakota voters say that Judge Kavanaugh should be confirmed by 53 to 28 percent. This includes support among independents by a 54 to 24 percent margin, and among women by a 47 to 30 percent margin,” it states.
The timing on this is important, because the situation around Kavanaugh’s confirmation has been very fluid, with a lot new reports seemingly every hour.
The survey was conducted September 15 – 19, and included 500 likely voters. This would mean that the survey was taking place after the accusation against Kavanaugh from Christine Blasey Ford was made public on September 12, but before reports of the second accuser Deborah Ramirez.
As I write this Ford is testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee. While at the national level we attempt to arrive at some degree of truth and justice in this matter, here in North Dakota the question is more political. How will the vote on Kavanaugh, if we get to that point, impact North Dakota’s Senate race?
This poll would seem to indicate there is still very strong support for Kavanaugh, even despite the accusations of sexual misconduct, though I would expect that opinions could shift very quickly based on new developments.
Here’s the memo: