The news for Senate candidate Kevin Cramer, in terms of public polling, has been pretty good for a while now. Not only has he led in every single publicly released poll of North Dakota’s statewide electorate released since February, and all but one poll released this election cycle, but a recent survey commissioned by the state’s NBC affiliates shows him leading incumbent Senator Heidi Heitkamp by 10 points:
I think the race is actually a lot closer than those numbers in that last poll indicate, but still. The trend in the polls is very much in Cramer’s favor heading into the final weeks of the campaign.
Democrats, obviously, need to disrupt this narrative. That’s understandable.
What’s not understandable is the sort of stupid way they’ve gone about doing it. They’ve released polling showing Senator Heitkamp leading Cramer…in only a part of the state.
Here’s their press release. You can read the full polling memo from DFM Research below:
I won’t say that this polling data is worthless. The firm, DFM, has a good track record here in North Dakota. Dean Mitchell, the pollster behind the organization, mostly works for Democrats but I’ve commissioned a survey from him in the past and I trust his work. What’s more, Republicans should be concerned about Heitkamp’s strong showing in the regions polled. Republicans are worried, in fact. Republicans in Cass County, for instance, tell me they’re worried Cramer isn’t focused enough in their region.
I’d say that’s probably fair criticism.
That said, why on earth would Democrats release polling for only a part of North Dakota as a way to rebut polling showing Cramer winning in the entire state? Even if the polling is sound and beneficial for them?
This makes it look like Heitkamp and the Democrats are hiding something, and that the something is probably their own statewide polling which also shows Cramer winning.
It might behoove our liberal friends to remember the vote which decides who gets to be Senator for the next six year will include the whole state.
Here’s the full polling memo: